The big event in 2019 is obviously the general elections. As policy purdah looms, politics is likely to dominate over reforms and concrete action for most of the year. But we don’t expect any retreat in push for RE irrespective of who comes to power. We expect a total RE capacity addition of 15,860 MW in 2019, a sharp jump of 50% over 2018. More than 69% of capacity addition is expected to come from utility scale solar projects.
Figure 1: Total RE capacity addition in 2019, MW
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research
Total domestic module manufacturing volume is expected to remain at about 3,000 MW. We should see greater adoption of new technologies such as mono-type modules, micro inverters, storage (finally expected to start rolling with likely announcement of a National Storage Mission).
Our estimate for utility scale solar EPC cost by year-end is INR 26/ Wp. Tariffs are likely to stay range bound within INR 2.50-3.00/ kWh depending on project location and offtake risk profile.