India has announced ambitious renewable targets but progress is lagging significantly. There is a disconnect between government targets and various operational, financial and regulatory constraints on the ground. We have taken a dispassionate and analytical approach to form a realistic view of future trajectory for renewable power. We have evaluated key demand-supply factors as well as competitive position of renewable power versus other generation sources.
We have assumed a largely status quo policy environment and drawn various scenarios for power demand growth and thermal power PLFs to estimate likely trajectory for renewable power. Our base case estimate is that solar and wind power capacity would reach 82 GW and 53 respectively by end 2024.
Figure: Projected solar and wind capacity, GW
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research
Note: Solar capacity includes utility scale, rooftop scale and open access
Key trends likely to shape the sector in the next few years:
- Large scale storage set to take off from 2023 onwards
- Tariffs to resume downward journey shortly
- Complex tender designs
- Distributed solar market future uncertain
- Manufacturing prospects stay bleak
- Mixed financing environment
Figure: Estimated renewable power capacity by 2024, MW
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA research
