Category: Projects

As 2014 draws to a close, it is useful to look back and summarize how the Indian solar market as shaped up over the past one year. The mood of the Indian solar market in 2014 can broadly be divided into two distinct halves; pre 22nd August and post 22nd August. No, 22nd August was not the day when the new Modi government was sworn in. It was the day when the new government decided not to act on the anti-dumping duty (ADD) recommendations of the previous government. It was on this day that the new government acted decisively to show its commitment and vision for the solar sector in India (read here).

Prior to 22nd August, except for some cell manufacturers, it was mostly gloom and doom in the Indian solar industry

The new government forcefully rejecting ADD and drawing up an enhanced plan for 100 GW by 2022

A concrete proof of the changing times is the interest being shown by international module manufacturers and project developers in India

Prior to 22nd August, except for some cell manufacturers, it was mostly gloom and doom in the Indian solar industry. The previous government had recommended imposition of very high levels of ADD on imports of cells and modules (refer) affecting the economic viability of ongoing projects. States were struggling to keep their policy programmes on track and the developers were just standing still, waiting for more clarity (refer). The market had ground to a halt in the middle of the year. Due to this, 2014 is still expected to be the slowest year since 2011 for new project capacity addition with only 775 MW expected to be commissioned.

However, the narrative completely changed with the new government forcefully rejecting ADD and drawing up an enhanced plan for 100 GW by 2022 (refer). Electricity Act 2003 is being amended to increase the share of renewables (refer) and a new Renewable Energy Act 2015 is in the pipeline (refer). Commitments for credit lines adding up to USD 6 billion are being sought from multilateral agencies such as US-EXIM, KfW, ADB and World Bank (refer). These may all be just announcements but even on ground there has been material progress – funds have been allocated for 22 GW solar parks policy and public sector companies have been provided viability gap funding approval for their first 1 GW project (refer). Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have successfully completed allocation of 1,500 MW projects. In total, over 4 GW of projects are in a post-PPA development stage, an allocation or 3 GW capacity is planned for early next year and a 750 MW project in Madhya Pradesh is being developed with debt from World Bank. In times when many government programs are struggling to get funds, for the solar sector, even canal-top solar has received funding support.

A concrete proof of the changing times is the interest being shown by international module manufacturers and project developers in India. As predicted by BRIDGE TO INDIA, the ‘Make in India’ will succeed by reforming and growing the market and not by implementing protectionist barriers such as ADD.

The year 2015 promises to be much more exciting and we expect more favourable policy and funding announcements as part of the budget in February 2015. Happy new year to all our readers!

The Indian government is planning to amend the Electricity Act 2003 in a fundamental power sector reform. The goal is to break the monopoly of power distribution companies on the end consumer and allow for more effective competition in the last-mile delivery and sale of power (refer).

The proposed amendment of the Electricity Act would have an impact on the viability of solar

BRIDGE TO INDIA believes that fundamental power sector reforms would be very beneficial for the solar power business

These measures will also change the landscape for solar project development in the country

Image source: livemint.com

Currently, the company that owns the last-mile distribution network (usually a state discom), is also responsible for the sale of power to the end customer. The amendment is likely to ‘unbundle’ these two activities. This move could revolutionise the highly politicised and deeply troubled Indian power market, with potentially incisive implications on power pricing (and cross-subsidies) and power quality. It could ultimately move power pricing out of the orbit of political populism and towards a more healthy economy. This in itself would be great news.

 Within the context of solar, any changes in the tariff structure would impact first the attractiveness of solar as an alternative power source for end consumers (socket parity) and later the attractiveness of solar to discoms. It will also impact regulatory provisions on grid-connectivity and net-metering. It might still be too early to analyse these impacts in detail without having more clarity on the nature of the proposed changes. However, in the long run, BRIDGE TO INDIA believes that such a fundamental power sector reform would be very beneficial for the solar power business. Based on our conversations with regulators and political decision makers, we get the impression that the different policy and reform initiatives, including the proposed reform of the Electricity Act, are for once synced and part of a larger game plan to create a functioning power market with a significant share of renewables.

 However, reforming the Indian power sector will not be easy. There are many and complex existing interests in the power sector that will get hurt by these changes. The industry is also notoriously slow and risk averse. India’s complex federal structure, wherein states will have a say in many electricity related matters will make reforms difficult, especially since the current government does not have a majority in the upper house of parliament, the Rajya Sabha. Protests against the proposed amendments are already planned for today (December 8th 2014) (refer link 1 and link 2).

While the proposed amendment of the Electricity Act would have an impact on the viability of solar, the government is simultaneously planning directly targeted measures to quickly grow solar. These include increasing renewable purchase obligations (RPOs) for solar from 3% to 10.5% of India’s electricity mix. This will be coupled with a more robust implementation mechanism and stricter penalties for non-compliance (refer). Apart from RPOs, the government will also mandate a 10% renewable generation obligation (RGOs) for new conventional power projects.

 Apart from the significant rise in the amount of solar power required to meet these new obligations, the measures will also change the landscape for solar project development in the country. Larger power sector companies such as NTPC, Reliance Power, Tata Power, Adani Power, GVK, Essar Energy and Jindal Steel and Power will be drawn into solar project development and their portfolios will not necessarily be limited to their own RGO requirements. Alternatively, existing, smaller renewable IPPs have new opportunities to offer their products (solar power) and services (project development) to the large power players. International companies and investors with larger power sector ambitions and a solar expertise might finally be induced to enter the Indian market. Given the expected growth in the market, all players will need to quickly evolve fund-raising capabilities to gain from this transition.

We believe that India could easily add 100 GW of solar power in the next ten years.[1] Such a capacity addition would likely be divided into different segments: small rooftop (solar bees), large rooftop (solar pigeons), utility scale projects (solar horses) and ultra-mega scale projects (solar elephants). Each segment has implementation challenges. We believe that solar horses would face least hurdles because of the existing execution experience and manageable size. Solar bees will face most hurdles because their implementation at scale requires the development of a new market place. For further details, please refer to our ‘India Solar Decision Brief’ titled “India’s Solar Transformation: Beehives vs Elephants” (online downloadable version available here).

Solar horses have relatively fewer challenges due to a good track record and existing industry ecosystem

Solar bees have most challenges; the largest hurdle is financing

For very large solar plants, grid infrastructure will be the key challenge

The implementation challenges vary across the four scenarios. Solar horses and solar pigeons are relatively easy to implement as compared to solar bees and solar elephants.

Figure 1: Comparison of implementation challenges across the four scenarios

The challenges in solar project implementation can be broken down into four broad categories – financing, space availability, industry ecosystem and infrastructure.

Financing challenges are a common thread across all four scenarios. To a large extent, these challenges pertain to commercial banks playing a more active role and providing more easy access to loans. The process of obtaining financing, particularly for small rooftop systems needs to become as hassle free as car or personal loans. With the central government targeting 15 GW by 2019, non-recourse financing needs to be made more widely available.

Land/space is an issue at both ends of the spectrum. On residential rooftops, space is limited, especially in densely populated cities (just think of apartment buildings). The sheer amount of land needed for an ultra-mega scale plant makes the process of acquiring it challenging, as it will likely involve multiple sellers and can encourage local land speculation. Delays in land acquisition often result in cost overruns, capable of single handedly derailing a project. In the middle – in the large rooftop and utility scale scenario – land/ space is comparatively less difficult to come by.

Currently, the Indian solar landscape already has a healthy ecosystem in place for utility scale projects. However, the space for small rooftop and large rooftop systems is fragmented and disorganized. For these kinds of projects to really take off, the market needs to become more organized with standardized, ready for installation solutions (for the large rooftop market) or “kits” (for the small rooftop market). In the case of ultra-mega scale projects, the ecosystem for solar will be developed quickly, based on the ecosystem of other large-scale infrastructure projects.

Grid integration challenges will play a critical role once solar become more prominent in India’s energy mix. Challenges such as energy balancing, demand forecasting and weather forecasting are common to all four scenarios. Detailed forecasting and connectivity standards are fairly easy and inexpensive to implement. They are also required early on. For ultra-mega scale projects, with increasing renewable penetration levels, more costly and complex changes are required in the ‘hardware’ of the energy system. They include new infrastructure projects around transmission and balancing power generation. In the first three scenarios balancing is not as serious a concern as the projects would be spread out all over India, across states and there will be some degree of geographical balancing. However, in the fourth scenario local energy balancing is probably required early on.

Mudit Jain is a Consultant at BRIDGE TO INDIA

[1] Refer to our blog, “Realizable solar potential in India is 110 GW to 144 GW by 2024”, http://bit.ly/1zD0znN

Since the 1950’s, the world has witnessed (and recorded) global warming at an unprecedented speed. This radical change in the climatic system has been attributed to massive emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, due to industrialization and related, modern lifestyles. While there have been debates in the past over the reality and validity of global warming, there is now an overwhelming scientific consensus that it happens, that it is man-made and that it affects the climate in potentially very damaging ways. Unless the carbon juggernaut is stopped and rolled back in time, we may soon pass a point of no return. In its fifth report on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sets the point of no return at 16 years from now1. One of the solutions is accelerated deployment of renewables. Today, renewable energy already accounts for over 20% of power generation worldwide as of 2013. Renewables are still, however, underutilized.

The key to avoid a climate disaster is to act quickly and decisively through a global transition in the way we gather, transport and consumer energy

Global energy needs are increasing and carbon curtailment won’t be possible without providing alternative sources of energy

Renewables are a technologically and economically mature option

Source: ZME Science – http://bit.ly/1oiWC2B

Climate scientists have been able to define the maximum amount of CO2 we can release in the atmosphere to keep temperature rise at 2° Celsius and thus prevent the most dangerous effects of climate change. However, in November 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank stated that on our current trajectory, we are headed towards a potentially catastrophic 3.6-4° C increase in global temperatures2. It is also estimated that the carbon that has already been emitted will lead to a rise of 0.8° C in average global temperatures. These changes in the climate inevitably come with a human cost. Around 5 million lives are lost due to climate change every year and by 2030, the figures could ramp up to a total of 100 million.

Renewable energy offers the perfect solution to meeting our energy needs without endangering the climate and the environment. For instance, if we look at the carbon footprint of a solar panel, taking into account its entire lifecycle, CO2 emissions would be around 30g/kWh on average. Compared with our current fossil fuel based energy sources whose carbon footprint stands at around 450-500g/kWh.

Over the past few years, great strides have been taken in deploying renewables and creating a robust market for them. Due to these efforts and breakthroughs in R&D, renewable energy costs have entered into a steep descent.

Technologies like solar are very easy and fast to deploy. This comes with added benefits of job creations. A report by Greenpeace shows that renewable energy could employ up to 8 million people by 2020, compared to coal industry’s 2.8 million. In our recent report “Beehives and Elephants”, we estimate that 100 GW of solar in India could generate 629,000 jobs over the next ten years3.

India has been one of the first movers in betting on renewables. However it is still ranked only 12th globally in terms of installed solar capacity. Given the abundant irradiation it possesses, India needs to scale up massively to live up to its true potential. There are currently efforts being made to revamp the renewable landscape in India under the new government with expansion in renewable energy targets and a revamp in the national solar mission4. By local necessity (of getting cheap, plentiful energy quickly) as well as by global necessity (preventing climate change which would be particularly harmful to India), India could emerge as a leader in the global energy transition.

 [1] http://bit.ly/1p8ZQ8q

[2] IEA (2012c). World Energy Outlook 2012. 12 November 2012.

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/#d.en.26099

World Bank (2012a). Turn down the Heat. November 2012.

http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_

Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf

[3] Read the full report here – http://bit.ly/1uZy2BY

[4] Read our weekly newsletter on the Renewable Energy Act – http://bit.ly/1x4TCra

Shikhin Mehrotra is an Analyst-Consulting at BRIDGE TO INDIA

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Solar energy in India has a great, intuitive appeal: everyone knows that there is a lack of power and sees the sun shine almost every day. In fact, the more the sun shines, the more people consume or yearn for electricity to provide relief. However, when it comes to the “how?”, there is a vast lack of knowledge and understanding. The more people in India can learn about how solar works, the faster the solar transformation will be. A great, but so far underutilized, medium to explain this is film. This is exactly the opportunity that the filmmakers Valli and Martand Bindana are now addressing with India’s first pan optic film on solar (see details here). We, the solar savvy community of India, have every reason to support this project.

 It will take users on a journey through India’s energy landscape and show how distributed solar can empower people

The film seeks to spread awareness on the true potential of solar to transform the country

It is narrated by famous actor Naseeruddin Shah

To make this movie a reality, the producers need support from the solar community (see details here)

The project is very ambitious. Valli says the film called Surya Ganga is about the “epic conflict between India’s land, energy, water and people”. It addresses the issue of India’s vast, rapidly growing energy needs and how the search for satisfying them (or the failure to do so) impacts lives in both rural and urban India. Solar power can be a game changer for the better in this great struggle.

 Surya Ganga is fiscally sponsored by the prestigious San Francisco Film Society, which gives it a non-profit status. Largely self-funded till now, the filmmakers have now launched a “crowd-funding” campaign to complete the film. “We put in our money when we began and we would have finished the film if it hadn’t expanded in scope as much as it did. Now, since the film covers the entire energy landscape, the shoot is planned over the length and breadth of the country pushing our budget way beyond our means.” says Valli. They hope to raise enough to tide them over the next 10 months of production and post production. Naseeruddin Shah, the legendary actor known not to mince words, says “this is an important film and should be made”. He features in the film as well.

 A lot of content and inspiration in the film comes from two books “Solar Trillions” and “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation” authored by Stanford Prof, Speaker Tony Seba. Having come in early during the pre-production stage, Tony guided the filmmakers on the world energy scene from a renewable energy standpoint. You can also support Surya Ganga and help make it a reality here.

 Tobias Engelmeier is Founder and Director, BRIDGE TO INDIA

Last week, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) released a draft document outlining allocation process for another 1,500 MW of solar PV capacity under phase two of India’s National Solar Mission (NSM) (refer).

Allocations will be made to bidders on the basis of the highest discount they offer on a benchmark tariff

The new allocations will have no VGF however, will have a DCR

Developers proposed to encourage a more even spread of plants (than it is currently) across India by introducing separate tariffs for different states

These allocations have been divided into two parts of 750 MW each. The first part is expected to be allocated by March 2015 and the remaining 750 MW six months later. Allocations will be made to bidders on the basis of the highest discount they offer on a benchmark tariff. For the current financial year, the benchmark tariff has been fixed at INR 6.99 (USD 0.12)/kWh by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC). NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam (NVVN) will be the off-taker of solar power and will bundle it with thermal power to sell to distribution companies across India at a competitive rate.

There will be no viability gap funding (VGF) mechanism as in batch one of phase two of the NSM. This mechanism was adopted last time only due to unavailability of thermal power for bundling.

The new allocations will again have a domestic content requirement (DCR). A capacity of 250 MW will be reserved for domestically manufactured cells and modules under each part of the allocation (500 MW in total).

On 18th July 2014, MNRE had called a meeting for the developers to get their inputs on the bidding framework. This is a welcome departure from the past, when the ministry first got a sanction on the allocation process from the cabinet and then held a pre-bid meeting with stakeholders. The problem with the old process was that by the time the stakeholders could give their feedback, the process was largely irreversible.

At the stakeholder meeting, the most important point raised was on anti-dumping duties and their potential impact on the new allocations. MNRE did not offer a conclusive response, but is known to have said that if duties are enforced, the domestic content requirement might be dropped.

Another point raised was related to the need for developers to obtain and submit a letter at the time of bidding from a substation confirming feasibility of evacuation. The developers asked for this to be reconsidered, arguing that it should only be required for successful bids to avoid inconvenience for both the developers and the grid operators.

Another point that was discussed was that solar power plants are concentrated in Rajasthan due to high irradiation and cheap land. This will increase the cost to the government for transmitting solar power to other states. The developers proposed to encourage a more even spread of plants across India by introducing separate tariffs for different states.

Jasmeet Khurana is a consultant at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

The costs for key solar equipment have fallen moderately in India over the last year. Chinese tier-1 crystalline modules came down by 3%, thin film modules by 6% and inverters by 8%. Cost reductions were thus much more moderate this year than in the year before. Nevertheless, a continuing fall in solar costs is essential for unlocking the grid parity market. This progress will now likely be undone by anti-dumping duties (ADD). For more details, please download our new India Solar Compass (July 2014 edition) here.

Module prices have fallen significantly in the second quarter of 2014

The appreciation of Indian rupee is the dominant contributor

Inverter prices have stabilized in 2014 after a drop in the second half of 2013

After the global consolidation of module manufacturers in 2013, the prices of tier-1 Chinese crystalline modules in India have stabilized. The steady depreciation of the Indian rupee had raised module prices towards the end of 2013. The recent appreciation of Indian Rupee has in turn helped in reducing module costs in INR terms. Additionally, First Solar is offering aggressive terms to fast track the procurement process so that their thin film modules can be imported before the possible imposition of ADD. Overall, the price reduction witnessed in the last year was 3% for Chinese crystalline modules and 6% for thin film modules,

Figure 1: Chinese C-Si and thin film module prices in last year

After a slight decline in 2013, inverter prices have stabilized in 2014. In the short run, a further reduction in prices is possible only with the installation of large projects with large order sizes. Industry players believe that for orders over 100 MW, prices can be as low as INR 3.0/Wp.

Figure 2: PV inverter prices in last year

Mudit Jain is a consultant at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

In the past week, India (the world’s third largest emitter of carbon) has been bolted to attention by two announcements. First, president Barack Obama of the US (the world’s second largest emitter) vowed to reduce carbon pollution from power plants by 30% by 2030. The very next day, China (the world’s largest emitter), announced its willingness to set absolute carbon targets from 2016 onwards. For India, this is worrying. It wants to avoid strict targets. In the past, its interests were aligned with those of the US and China. Now India fears it might be left alone out in the rain (or whatever else a changing climate might bring) when it comes to the Paris round of negotiations next year. This is part 1 looking at the changing international landscape. Part 2 will look at India’s options.

The US and Chinese climate moves are pragmatic, not principled

India loses two key allies in resisting binding carbon emissions limits

India wants unlimited carbon room for itself (to grow out of poverty), but strict climate action from others (India is extremely vulnerable to climate change). It is unlikely that it will get both

How India views climate change negotiations

In climate negotiations, India’s stance has been clear: Firstly, India does not accept any binding, external (internationally agreed) emissions caps. This could imperil the more important goal of development and ending poverty though industrialization. Secondly, India has very little responsibility for global climate change. Its per capita emissions are tiny compared with those of the developed world or even China. If you add a historical share (looking at a “carbon budget”) the historical responsibility is clearly with Europe, Japan and North America.

These are good arguments, no doubt. The only problem is this: If the rest of the world does not accept India’s arguments of fair carbon budgets and fails to reduce emissions significantly, Indians will suffer disproportionately. At Copenhagen, India therefore offered a more pro-active negotiating stance, based on the premise that India will never emit more on a per capita basis than developed nations. India also made a voluntary pledge to reduce its carbon intensity of GDP by 20-25% (based on 2005 levels). However, in coalition with China (and, more tacitly, the US and Japan), it prevented a binding, global emissions deal.

India’s alignment with China, Japan and the US at Copenhagen could only be a temporary one (refer). The countries’ interests are fundamentally out of sync: Their position in the economic development cycle and need for carbon emissions are different. Their vulnerability to climate change is different and their ability to deal with the effects of climate change is different. Actually, I would argue that India had more to gain than to lose from a global climate pact: placing limits on everybody’s freedom to emit might be more important than keeping one’s own unlimited freedom to emit. India is just too vulnerable to climate change (see picture).

The US and China are selling themselves well

The US and China now seem to have changed their minds with respect to emissions. Their announcements, however, are not principled, but pragmatic. Partially, they just follow, rather than drive, developments on the ground. And partially, they aim at other benefits such as cost savings through efficiency, energy security or less local pollution that happen to align with lower carbon emissions and are hence conveniently re-minted in the diplomatic coin of “climate change action”.

Look at the US: instead of triggering climate action, the targets are barely stating the obvious. Driven by the shale gas findings and the subsequent coal-to-gas-shift, emissions have already fallen by 12% since 2005. Extrapolating this trend to 2030 yields much more than a 30% reduction in carbon emissions. (The question is: what happens, if the shale boom is smaller than expected?)

And now, look at China: He Jiankun, Chairman of China’s Advisory Committee on Climate Change, has said, “The government will use two ways to control CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions in the next five-year plan, by intensity and an absolute cap.” China’s next five-year plan starts in 2016. China’s energy economy is built on coal. But that is changing. Air pollution and water scarcity make coal less attractive, while renewables are getting more cost competitive and are being deployed at a vast scale. The Chinese energy market is changing for political and economic reasons. Luckily, this change also means a lower emissions intensity of GDP. Hence, accepting targets will come at no cost to China or the US. But it gives them leverage on other countries in international negotiations.

India needs to act

Given that the US and China have broken rank and might now pile onto India to accept legally binding emissions targets, India’s newly elected government needs to think of a new strategy soon. On the 23rd of September, there is an international climate summit in New York, hosted by the UN. This is the first time that heads of government will meet again since Copenhagen in 2009. In early 2015, national voluntary guidelines are to be announced. These national plans will determine the global climate course. So the next months are crucial for the next 10 years or more.

Tobias Engelmeier is the Director and Founder at BRIDGE TO INDIA. Twitter: @TEngelmeier

In an interesting paper called “India Unleashed”, Gregor Macdonald from Terrajoule.us looks at India’s energy options. He compares a “coal heavy” scenario and a “wind and solar heavy” scenario. India can still choose its trajectory and its choice will have repercussions in the global energy markets.

Terrajoule expects India’s energy demand to grow by 7.5% p.a. until 2025 to reach 1,428 Mtoe. This is a 2.5-fold increase from today

A wind and solar scenario would be “revolutionary” but “not outlandish”. Under this, India would produce 400 TWh from solar in 2025 and rely heavily on gas

The projections are similar to our own, however, we believe that neither coal nor gas will be available in sufficient quantities for India. A renewables-led energy system with storage and grid management needs to be created

India’s energy consumption is far below the global average. The country has 90% of China’s population, but consumes only 20% of the energy. In the last 10 years, energy demand grew by just under 6% p.a. In future, Terrajoule expects it to be higher at 7.5%. This would not imply a radical change in India’s economic pattern, but would rather be a step towards normalization, including some degree of industrialization. It would leave India with an annual energy requirement of 1,428 Mtoe in 2025; up from 565 Mtoe in 2012. India would then account for just over 8% of global energy consumption. With 17% of the global population, it would still be below par. The assumption is quite reasonable. Especially in light of the fact that India’s government will push for accelerated industrialization as the only way to provide sufficient jobs for the millions entering the workforce every year. In a blog post, we have shown that to reach the global average, India would require 2,176 Mtoe (refer).

However, such demand growth will be very challenging to match on the supply side. India is already suffering from undersupply of energy. While it has much (low quality) coal, there are very few conventional or non-conventional gas or oil reserves. It competes with an energy hungry China in global markets and has to work with less-than-friendly neighboring countries on pipeline projects to get access to international fossil fuel reserves.

In the likely scenario, according to Terrajoule, India will become the global driver for coal demand, almost single-handedly prolonging the Second Age of Coal. BP in their World Energy Outlook assumes a somewhat similar scenario, wherein coal does the heavy lifting even as solar grows rapidly (refer). This might look feasible at first: there is no shortage of coal in India or globally. Yet, a closer look reveals the challenges: India’s coal sector is in deep crisis. Coal India, a government monopoly on mining and delivering coal is unable to meet demand. Railway, port and grid infrastructures are insufficient. Rising import coal prices have made new projects unviable. Acquiring land and permits for new power plants is very difficult. All this has led to an underinvestment in coal plants and underutilization of existing plants in recent years.

Under the second scenario, Terrajoule assumes India will become a wind and solar powerhouse, accompanied by a large buildup of gas-fired balancing plants. In 2025, India would consume 15% of global wind and solar power (roughly equivalent to its population share, but about double its share of global energy consumption). In 2025, India would generate 400 TWh of solar power. This is four times the current global generation. However, it is not impossible. We have previously given an idea on how even 1,500 TWh could work (refer) and suggested a game changing shift to solar (refer).

The trouble with this scenario, according to Terrajoule, is the vast requirement for gas as gas-fired plants will have to provide the balancing loads. India imports a vast majority of its gas in the form of LPG. However, the port infrastructure as well as the national pipeline network is still very limited. Achieving this scenario would be “heroic”. To my mind, frankly, there is no alternative. Not achieving this revolutionary change in energy supply will likely condemn the country to continuing shortages in energy supply, slower growth and retarded development. Terrajoule is confident that the rate at which the cost of solar comes down actually accelerates, making solar a very competitive energy source much earlier than 2025. If this is the case, then all efforts should be spent on intelligent grid management, storage technologies and perhaps even reviving the Indian CSP story.

You can download the full report from the Terrajoule.us website for $ 6.99.

Tobias Engelmeier is the Director and Founder at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

Asia has registered unprecedented growth in 2013. China and Japan have become the largest solar markets in the world. With an over 200% increase in new solar installation in 2013, both China and Japan more than doubled their cumulative capacities. European countries such as Germany and Italy will likely lose their leading positions. For an overview, download our latest India Solar Handbook [download here].

Asia has toppled Europe as the leading solar market with over 56% of the total solar capacity added in 2013

China (11.3 GW) has added more capacities than the entire European market in 2013 (10.8 GW)

India has only grown by around 1 GW but remains the country with the highest long term potential for solar

Europe has dominated the solar energy for over a decade. Germany, Italy or Greece can already meet over 5% of their annual electricity demand from solar. Lucrative feed in tariffs (FiTs) have attracted much investment. However, most European countries continue to reduce FiTs and growth slows. The markets seem to have peaked for now. Asian countries, on the other hand, drive growth in the industry.

In total, 36.9 GW of solar capacity has been added in 2013. China was the biggest solar market with record new installations of 11.3 GW. It contributed 31% of the total capacity added in 2013 – more than all of Europe put together (with 10.8 GW or 29%). China surpassed Italy to become the second largest market in cumulative terms with 18.3 GW of installed capacity by 2013. Japan has been the second largest market after China and installed 6.9 GW in 2013.[1] Other Asian countries such as India, Korea and Thailand are growing.

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Figure 1: PV Markets growth in 2013[2]

Figure 2: Share of major PV markets for new solar installations in 2013[3]

The energy hungry Chinese solar market has been driven by a nation-wide FiT, subsidies at the provincial level and large-scale pilot projects under the “Golden Sun” program. The Chinese government has announced ambitious plans of adding 14 GW of solar installations in 2014.[4] Although, there are uncertainties surrounding the 8 GW rooftop solar projects due to implementation challenges, China will certainly achieve or possibly surpass their 6 GW utility scale project target.

After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, Japan has shifted focus towards the development of solar projects. To that end, the country has introduced one of the highest FiT in the world. As a result, the market has seen a surge. IHS expects that Japan will add 9 GW of solar installations in 2014.[5] Going by the forecast, Japan will likely become third largest market in cumulative terms by the end of 2014.

And waiting in the background are still larger market opportunities, especially in India, which has the largest potential for solar globally. In 2013 it only added 1 GW to come to a cumulative total of 2.5 GW. Growth will be comparatively slow as long as it is subsidy dependent. However, as solar reaches parity with diesel costs and grid tariffs, the market will experience rapid and sustained growth.

European markets, on the other hand, have registered significant slowdown in terms of solar installations in 2013. Additions were only 10.8 GW, a reduction of over 50% as compared to the 2011 level. The German government has set a targeted corridor of installations of 2.5 GW to 3.5 GW per year to reduce the subsidy burden. In future, the government plans to introduce self-consumption fees, FiT cuts and limits on new capacity expansion. This puts a firm lid on growth. The market in Italy came to an abrupt slowdown in 2013, when FiTs were discontinued. Spain, also, has retracted its support for solar by way of FiTs in 2012. Additionally, the European Union, in a move to counter cheap imports from China, has fixed the minimum net import price for modules at EUR 0.56/ Watt in 2013. This increased the cost for solar.

[1] IEA PVPS, Snapshot of Global PV (1992-2013; bit.ly/1fwoM3s

[2] IEA PVPS, Snapshot of Global PV (1992-2013), IEA PVPS, Snapshot of Global PV (1992-2013); bit.ly/1fwoM3s

[3] IEA PVPS, Snapshot of Global PV (1992-2013); bit.ly/1fwoM3s

Note : The contribution from Rest of World is very small to feature in the graph

[4] National Energy Board, China; bit.ly/1gJnFjZ

[5] IHS pressroom; bit.ly/1mQQcEf

Mudit Jain is a Consultant at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

We are pleased to announce a new addition to our portfolio of publications – BRIDGE TO INDIA ‘SOLAR CASE STUDY’. This is an effort to bring a greater degree of depth and transparency to the solar market in India.

Our case studies are aimed at EPCs, project developers, lenders, investors and policy-makers and intend to disseminate knowledge on solar projects that have already been executed

In our first case study, we examine a 36MWp project commissioned in Jodhpur, Rajasthan. The project was developed by Giriraj Enterprises (a Malpani Group company) and the EPC was done by Sterling and Wilson

Through our case study series, we create the platform for developers, EPCs and component manufacturers to showcase their projects and skills to more than 12,000 industry readers across the globe

We believe that everyone in the market can benefit from having more knowledge about the projects that were already executed. Our case studies allow EPCs and component suppliers to compare notes, help project developers take more informed decisions, lenders to fine-tune their risk perceptions and give policy-makers some more on-ground input needed to adjust and improve the regulations. Over time, we aim to distil best practices.

Each of our case studies is sponsored by one of the stakeholders in the project. This does not give the sponsor any editorial rights and we stress the independence of our analysis. However, the sponsor can choose a project that he or she considers a particularly good project. A project, for example, that showcases a particular skill or functionality. We, in turn provide an independent review of the project and share that with the large Indian solar community through our various outreach channels.

In our first case study [Download here], we look at one of Rajasthan’s largest solar projects – a 36 MWp plant near Jodhpur owned by Giriraj Enterprises, a Malpani Group company. The plant was built and commissioned by one of India’s leading EPC companies – Sterling and Wilson. The case study provides an overview of the project, the site, the technology selection and timelines. The study also looks at the key challenges faced by the EPC contractor in working in the harsh desert climate of Rajasthan. Innovative solutions and best practices are also documented.

If you would like us to create a case study on one of your projects, please contact us at contact@wordpress-117315-688799.cloudwaysapps.com.

Akhilesh Magal is Senior Manager, Consulting at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

India’s new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced that it wants to provide electricity to all households by 2019. This is a challenging task, considering that only 55.3% rural households and 67.2% households across the country have access to electricity as per the 2011 Census[1]. 43.2% of rural households and 6.5% urban households use kerosene for lighting.

Such a program would require around 19.5 GW of distributed solar

The challenge will be to create a viable market place with sustainable solutions

The target is very ambitious. It shows that electrification and solar are high on the agenda of the new government

Modi’s new government wants to use solar energy to provide a minimum level of electrification across the country. Let us assume that all of India’s 81 million currently unelectrified households will be electrified using solar power. To meet their daily basic requirements, 275 W/household for 3 hours per day (Scenario 2), they will need 240 W of solar panels. This means that approximately 19.5 GWp of solar PV needs to be installed, requiring an investment, under current prices of around INR 250 per system[2] (USD 4.27), of around INR 4,800 bn [USD 82 bn]. This will open up huge opportunity for private sector participation in electrification programme. If the expense is incurred in equal annual installments in five years until 2019, the funding would be the equivalent of 1% of India’s 2013 GDP each year.

Electrical loads
Scenario 1*

Scenario 2

Scenario 3
Load per household (W)
58

275

500
Number of lights (9 W)
2

4

6
Number of fans (50 W)
_

2

4
Electric socket – electronic gadgets (40 W)
1

1

1
TV sets (100 W)
_

1

1
Computer (100 W)
_

_

1

A robust national framework for implementation and funding support for states would be critical to achieving this target. A dedicated nodal agency at the centre to co-ordinate effectively with state level agencies could help. A vast awareness and marketing campaign would be required as well as a significant push in capacity building at the local level for installation, operation, maintenance and repair of such systems. Of course, the state would not have to do everything itself. In fact, it should not. Instead, it should allow a competitive ecosystem of private companies, investors and banks to do most of the legwork.

To that end, it would help, if the government can layout a clear long term policy to provide visibility to market players. A few private sector companies are already setting up rural electrification projects in India and many more are showing interest in the sector. In addition, the government should set up an independent agency that can ensure standards of execution quality in a non-bureaucratic manner.

While the goal may sound ambitious, it is clear that providing electricity to all citizens needs to be a top goal for any government. What the new government should be wary of in implementing such a scheme is the creation of a bubble along the lines of the microfinance market in India. The focus needs to be on real solutions, based on viable and scalable business models, reliable technology and trustworthy providers.

[1]http://censusindia.gov.in/2011census/hlo/Data_sheet/India/Source_Lighting.pdf

Scenario 1 is as per Remote Village Electrification Programme of Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India

Scenario 2 and 3 are based on assumptions of various household loads

[2] Solar PV system with battery bank

InduKalpa Saikia is the Sr. Manager, Project Development at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

Media reports claim that Kerala’s ambitious rooftop plan to set up 10,000 off-grid solar power plants would be missing the deadline. However, based on our interaction with the officials, it seems that the program is likely to be completed well ahead of schedule as per the December 2014 deadline set by MNRE. As of now, around 6,000 plants have been commissioned and the rest are already in pipeline. However, another program announced last year that aims at installing 25,000 grid connected rooftop power plants, faces delays and no power plant has been commissioned under the policy as yet.

The 10,000 rooftop program proposes attractive incentives to consumers by allowing state subsidies apart from the central ones

The 25,000 grid connected power plant program will probably be delayed due to issues with net metering, energy accounting and handling grid connectivity

The key learning from delays in subsidy disbursement in Kerala is to make a policy not dependent on central government grants

The 10,000 rooftops program (refer) is the first of its kind in India to incentivize off-grid power plants at this scale. It not only makes a lot of sense for Kerala, considering the substantial power deficit in the state, but also proposes attractive incentives to consumers by allowing state subsidies apart from the central ones. Despite the fact that there have been significant delays with the subsidy disbursement (complete subsidies have only been disbursed to around 1,000 systems) and issues with facilitation of low cost interest loans, the rooftop program is on track. The timely implementation of the project can be attributed to the streamlined processes under the program in terms of selection of vendors, dual subsidy mechanism, price benchmarking and quality assurances.

On the other hand, the 25,000 grid connected power plant program will likely be delayed due to issues with net metering, energy accounting and handling grid connectivity. As per BRIDGE TO INDIA conversations, the state electricity board in Kerala is hesitant to connect the rooftop power plants below the 11 kV line as it might face energy accounting challenges. Kerala now wants to increase the cut-off size of individual rooftop projects to have them connected to the 11 kV line.

Nevertheless, being the first state to announce and implement a distributed solar program in India at this scale, it is noteworthy that Kerala might successfully complete the 10,000 rooftop program ahead of schedule. It is a good case study for the other states that have recently announced or are in the process of formulating their rooftop policies or schemes. These include Tamil Nadu (refer), Uttarakhand (refer), Gujarat (refer) and Karnataka.

The key learning from delays in subsidy disbursement in Kerala is to make a policy self-reliant and not dependent on central government grants. Secondly, a policy for grid-connected rooftop projects needs to be accompanied with timely implementation of net metering. States that have communicated ambitious plans need to now focus on solving the ground level challenges such as grid connectivity, improvement of grid infrastructure and reducing the power deficit. This will enable a successful transition of solar in India from centralized large scale to small-scale rooftop.

This post is an excerpt from this week’s INDIA SOLAR WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE.

 Across the globe, renewables are entering into their second phase: no longer driven by subsidies or even climate concerns, they directly compete with existing fossil fuel based power. So far, few utilities have been able to manage even the first phase successfully. And they seem to be struggling to strategize the second. Why is that the case? Should they oppose or embrace renewables? This is Part 3 of a three part series on utilities and renewables, looking at what utilities need to do to survive and succeed. To refer to part 1, click here. To refer to part 2, click here.

Utilities need to become more flexible organisations to succeed in a more flexible market

New business models need to be mastered and a different risk profile needs to be developed

Smaller utilities might be at an advantage, if they are able to more quickly adapt

Utilities are currently failing to change with the times, to see the future coming. They sometimes remind one of the IBM of the 80s, before the spread of PCs and the growth of Microsoft and Apple. Or perhaps of the formerly monopolistic fixed line phone operators, who were forced to live up to fast changing regulatory, technological and competitive circumstances, driven by privatization and the growth of mobile telephony. Some of the big traditional phone companies have survived and found a new role for themlselves (as has IBM). Others have failed.

Like the phone operators, utilities were profoundly risk-averse and used to very stable market conditions with established (if complex) technologies. Now the certainties are gone. The rate of change in the industry has stepped up several notches and its very structure and business models are being revised.

At the same time, utilities are under significant pressure to invest. They need to replace old grids and reduce costs (in developed countries) or expand them and upgrade them to carry more loads and reduce losses (in developing countries). At the same time, grids need to be made smart enough for intermittent renewable supply. In rapidly developing countries like India and China, vast new generation capacities need to be added.

Utilities can only succeed, if they become operationally better and more flexible. Power systems used to be run almost on autopilot. In future, they will resemble fast paced computer games or hectic stock market trading floors.

Becoming operationally excellent means becoming much more efficient in the way the established business is conducted. (Many are still used to the glacial pace of quasi-governmental institutions.) It also means innovating and constantly improving processes. A much more refined load-demand forecasting would help. As would a state-of-the-art maintenance strategy that strikes the right balance between quality and cost by stringently differentiating between components that are best served by corrective maintenance versus those that require time-based, condition-based and reliability-centered maintenance. Most importantly, organizations need to be rewired to provide the kind of flexibility needed for a more complex electricity market. This relates to how research is conducted, how investment decisions are made and how much time decision-making takes, among other things. It also requires a shift in focus: away from the centers of political power (and lobbying) and towards the power customers.

But is this enough? In addition to managing their core business, utilities need to simultaneously re-invent themselves to service future businesses. For this, they have to become risk takers. There are new, exciting market opportunities in storage, power trading or grid-management. New services for the more complex power economy need to be provided for instance in maintenance, or software solutions. New types of power purchase contracts are emerging and new generation and transmission capacities will be funded in different ways. Energy efficiency on the generation and consumption side remains a huge, still largely untapped opportunity. It could be unlocked by new business models, which the utilities, with their wealth of data and experience as well as their still unrivaled customer access, are very well placed to develop. They are also in a good position to link the second major energy revolution, the shale gas revolution in the US as well as in future probably in China and other countries, with the renewables revolution. In addition, they need to start thinking about small, distributed solutions that can be scaled. These are fundamentally different to the infrastructure investments utilities are used to and more akin to selling cars or white goods (or fleets of cars and bundles of white goods). Money here will be made through scale, maintenance contracts and related financial services. Utilities will need to build brands that end customers like and trust. Since, there is still a high degree of uncertainty about what models will work in future, utilities will need to place more bets on new ideas. They need to develop a bold, nimble institutional mindset.

This, they will only be able to do so, if they embrace the change at a deep level; not grudging acceptance, not fearful tugging-along. They need to become credible stakeholders in the future energy system. If they can succeed in this, they will not only retain their ‘license to operate’ but, more importantly, win the influence to shape the system and perhaps bring back some strategic certainty to their business. They have been consistently too conservative with respect to renewables and the change they bring. Can they develop a progressive vision, outlining not only the risks (which is important), but also the opportunities? With an ambitious roadmap?

Refer to part 1 of the blog series here.

Refer to part 2 of the blog series here.

Tobias Engelmeier is the Managing Director at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below

This blog piece is based on a recent workshop that was part of a joint project by Bridge to India, Prayas Energy Group and IIT Mumbai (National Center for PV Research and Education, NCPRE). Our research results will be published in March 2014. At the event, representatives from state and private sector utilities, government institutions and academia as well as Indian and international private sector companies including solar system installers and inverter manufacturers met to discuss the effects of distributed, infirm power generation on the grid and of fluctuating grids on PV systems. Below are some hypotheses that emerged and that will be tested further over the coming months. As always, we highly appreciate feedback.

Detailed standards and regulations have been developed in Germany and the US to deal with safety concerns

Even at high penetration levels, few challenges are purely technical. Most are commercial, relating to the economics of storage, balancing, spinning, etc

Indian regulators and utilities have insufficient data to fully understand the impact of distributed power generation on the grid

At the workshop, we looked at both the effects of a PV system on the grid and of the grid on the PV system. We assumed net-metering or feeding back into the grid (which is arguably required to achieve significant numbers of distributed PV systems). We looked at safety concerns (especially islanding) and stability concerns (both with respect to the grid and with respect to the PV system). The overall mood at the meeting was that the question is timely – as there are plenty of net-metering regulations on the anvil – and that the challenges are quite manageable. The issue is more to clearly identify the challenges and develop structured guidelines to deal with them.

One of the key concerns of utilities and regulators is the safety and within it the main issue is unintentional islanding. This seems to be a non-issue, however. All quality inverters will automatically shut off, if the grid is down. Regulations from more experienced international markets like Germany and the US can be used to specify technical requirements in India in order to ensure that all new entrants in the inverter market adhere to the same standards. Intentional islanding, to allow local ‘mini-grids’ to continue to operate if the main grid fails, would require a further thought through the set of safety regulations, including communication with the load dispatch centers and utilities.

With respect to grid stability, equally, the inverter can be specified to shut off as soon as the grid frequency is outside of a specified boundary, this protecting the grid from excessive solar power. However, the details need to be clearly spelt out: What are the frequencies at which the inverter shuts off? Should all inverters shut off at the same levels, or should they be phased out at different levels, perhaps based on system sizes or location? Perhaps the tolerable frequency range in India can be larger than in e.g. Germany? What are protocols, standards and certification processes that can be put in place to ensure that systems have the right functionality right from the start? While the issue is still negligible at current penetration levels, it is easier and cheaper to specify these now than to retrofit later. At the same time, it should be avoided to burden smaller systems with excessive standards-related costs that make them unviable. There was a strong sense that distributed PV can actually help to stabilize the distribution grids.

Challenges might arise at the transformer level, if there is a lot of distributed capacity in a certain locality. If it is necessary to limit grid-interactive PV installations, installations would have to be effectively monitored, which could in itself be a difficulty. However, transformers typically have a loading capacity of 110% of the rated load and have safety devices to cut off if that is exceeded. Also, it might be unrealistic to expect solar to exceed the load. Wherever the power demand is high with respect to available space/rooftops, e.g. wherever cooling is used, this is unlikely. The issue might arise in rural areas. However, here the economics of feeding solar into the grid without FiTs are not strong as power prices are heavily subsidized. So this might not be an issue after all.

Another challenge is to manage sudden, sharp drops in PV generation (e.g. if there is a sudden cloud cover). These issues will only arise at high penetration levels, but could be relevant in specific places already quite soon. Gandhinagar in Gujarat, for instance, is planning to install a total of 10 MW of solar capacity (8 MW on rooftops) with a base load power requirement of only 40 MW (25%). This will be an interesting test case for understanding the impact of a high penetration of solar generation on the grid. Inversely, the opinion at the workshop was that voltage fluctuations in the grid and outages of the grid have no significant impact on the functioning or lifetime of PV systems.

The larger grid-management questions relating to stability, such as balancing the grid, providing storage and spinning reserves for times when renewables are not available, pricing the solar power fed back into the grid and pricing distribution and transmission services for this power are not so much technical issues than commercial ones. They relate to the proper incentivization. However, if they are not addressed, they lead to technical challenges of managing the grid. There is little clarity on what would be a dangerous limit of having infirm, unbalanced power in the grid. According to an older NREL study, 20% should be unproblematic. In Germany, the grid has functioned well with penetration rates of up to 60%. Similarly, ‘smart grids’ that allow for a very active communication between different generation and consumption points are not so much a technical necessity as an economic opportunity.

The thrust of the research should be on clearly outlining and structuring the various challenges that need to be addressed and to give Indian and international case studies and data showing how they have been tackled already to increase the comfort level of regulators and utilities. In addition, there should be standardized (modular) requirements for different system types and sizes, including e.g. protocols for grid interconnection points and detailed inverter spec sheets. From the utility and regulatory side, processes need to be standardized to provide fast turnaround times for any permits needed in order to not stall the market.

Tobias Engelmeier is the Managing Director at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below

The Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission (KERC), on 10th October 2013 announced

the tariffs for grid-connected projects (click here for the order).

The Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission (KERC) has announced benchmark tariffs for grid connected solar projects.
These benchmarks mean very little because they are what they are – benchmarks
For rooftop and small plants, a net metering policy will determine actual tariffs for excess energy fed back into the grid.

The tariff order specifies the benchmark tariffs for grid connected solar PV and rooftop and

small solar plants (with and without MNRE subsidy) (See table below).

Type of Solar Plant
Tariff(INR/kWh)
Solar PV plants
8.40
Rooftop and small solar plants
9.56
Rooftop and small solar plants with 30% capital subsidy
7.20

Let’s start with the third category – rooftop and small solar plants with capital subsidy. As BRIDGE TO INDIA noted in this earlier blog post, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has stopped disbursements of subsidy – with no clear deadline for reinstating this scheme. So there are likely to be no projects that would come under this category.

In case of the large scale solar PV plants, a reverse bidding process under the Karnataka Solar Policy determines the PPA price. The Karnataka Solar Policy was announced in 2011 and has a target of 350 MW by 2016. The state auctioned 80 MW in 2011 and a further 130 MW in 2013 (Refer the India Solar Handbook, June 2013, BRIDGE TO INDIA). The lowest successful bid during the first phase of the auction was at INR 7.94/kWh and the highest at INR 8.50/kWh. The next round of 130 MW saw bids between INR 5.51/kWh and INR 8.05/kWh. The average successful bid coming to INR 7.06/kWh (see previous blog). The result of both bids show that KERC’s benchmark tariff and actual market prices are highly divergent. The tariff by itself only serves as a benchmark for the reverse bidding process.

In case of small and rooftop solar plants, there is generally no reverse bidding. Although Karnataka has not announced a specific net metering or rooftop policy until date, similar policies announced in other states show that projects under this category are allocated on a first-come-first-serve basis. It is highly unlikely that Karnataka’s distribution companies (BESCOM, HESCOM, MESCOM, GESCOM, CESCOM) will pay rooftop system owners INR 9.56/kWh for feeding in the excess generation back onto the grid. The DISCOMs in Karnataka currently procure power at a price of INR 2.78/kWh.

Sources say that Karnataka is in the process of finalizing a net-metering policy. It is highly likely that the policy goes along the lines of Andhra Pradesh’s net metering policy, where the DISCOM does not pay for any excess generation. Andhra Pradesh’s net metering policy only adjusts solar generation against the user’s current consumption (like a banking agreement).

The KERC order must be taken with a pinch of salt and for what it is – a suggestive benchmark. History has shown that benchmarks and actual market realities are often very divergent. Ultimately Karnataka’s net metering policy shall determine the tariffs for rooftop and small solar systems.

Akhilesh Magal heads the Project Development team at BRIDGE TO INDIA. He likes to blog about the progress of rooftop PV in India.

What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below

On Tuesday, 30th July 2013, the central government in India gave its initial go-ahead on splitting the state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) into two states, i.e., Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The formalization of the split is expected to take at least another six months. Such a split is bound to have an impact on infrastructure projects in the state. Solar power projects are also expected to be affected as Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) under the Andhra Pradesh solar policy were expected to be signed soon.

Bankability issues may arise with the restructuring of the state DISCOMS

The possibility of the state’s division may have been considered by the state authorities since the release of the policy

Short-term implications include delays in the signing of PPAs and possible opting out of developers

Splitting of the state will require re-structuring of the state owned enterprises such as the power distribution companies (DISCOMs), which would be the PPA signing authority for solar projects. The jurisdictions of the DISCOMs could be rearranged or they could be divided to form new entities; such a restructuring is going to have an impact on their new customer base as well as their balance sheets.

As per the insights provided by a developer who plans to set up projects in the state, the possibility of the state’s division has been considered by the state authorities since the very release of the state solar policy. The matter was even discussed in the pre-bid meetings. In fact, most projects that fall in the Telangana region would enter into a contract only with the Andhra Pradesh Central Power Distribution Company Limited (APCPDCL), which is the DISCOM operating within that area. This will help avoid any issues related to the jurisdiction and operations of the off-taker. However, some areas in the newly-formed Telangana region will not fall under the jurisdiction of APCPDCL and some re-structuring of the DISCOMs will be required.

Due to the restructuring of the DISCOMS, banks are expected to have some concerns with the bankability of off-taker. Currently, there is very limited clarity on how the re-structuring will happen as the process is yet to begin. Without any clarity as to what can be expected, some developers may lose confidence and pull out before signing the PPA.

There is a very real possibility that the formation of new states can create problems in the short run. For instance, there can be delays in the signing of PPAs as the APTRANSCO may want to introduce revisions in the contracts to accommodate the implications of the split. However, once the ambiguity related to issues of bankability and operation are cleared, the developments would pick up pace. Finally, in the long run there may not be a significant impact on the overall functioning of the projects. Such state divisions have happened before in the country, like in the case of Bihar and UP, and eventually the operation of infrastructure projects has been worked out.

What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below

On 23rd July 2013, Greenpeace and BRIDGE TO INDIA launched their new report ‘Rooftop Revolution: Unleashing Delhi’s Solar Potential’. The findings were discussed at a prominent panel discussion, which included government representatives, state utility officials, solar system installers and members of resident welfare associations.

There was an agreement that solar will be a key energy source for India and Delhi.

The government officials stressed their commitment to Delhi going solar and highlighted past initiatives and ideas.

Stakeholders agree with the report’s conclusion that it is the right time for Delhi to go solar and they would like the government to take the lead.

Delhi has so far has managed its power supply relatively well. The per capita electricity availability in Delhi today is around 1,650 kWh, which is more than twice the national average of about 780 kWh. Nevertheless, in spite of having one of the highest per capita electricity availability in the country, Mr. Anand Prabhu from Greenpeace believes that Delhi is unable to cope with the increasing demand for power. This is because Delhi is still dependent on imports for more than 60% of its power requirements. Mr. Narayanan, CEO of the Delhi DISCOM BSES Yamuna, also stressed that Delhi needs to go solar in order to reduce its dependency on electricity imports and keep its promise of 24×7 electricity supply. He is also of the opinion that Delhi needs to implement solar now and not wait for the future.

Mr. Tarun Kapoor, secretary MNRE mentioned that Delhi is already taking steps towards a solar power supply. A 1 MW rooftop power plant has been approved for the planning commission building under a RESCO model. Another 11 MW of rooftop solar across India (including Delhi) is being tendered and will be allotted within the next month.

Most of the stakeholders who were present at the launch agreed with the report’s conclusion that solar is already a viable alternative or will become viable for most power consumers within a few years. Mr. Deepak Gupta, former secretary MNRE, suggested that Delhi should have a dedicated financing mechanism for solar. People are currently able to buy cars, computers and other consumer durables on equated monthly installments. Similarly, solar should also have a financing option to reduce the burden of the high upfront cost. Mr. Gupta also mentioned that Delhi has 3,000 schools and if each school installs a 5 kW solar power plant, there would be a cumulative capacity addition of 15 MW. This could be a good start.

While Mr. Atul Goel of United RWAs joint action expressed concern about the installation of rooftops on multistory buildings, there was broad agreement amongst other panelists that residents are willing to install solar and that the issue of sharing rooftops would not be a concern. In addition to this, Mr. Ashwin Gambhir from Prayas Energy Group strongly believed that once there is economic viability and solar tariffs are lower than DISCOM tariffs, people will definitely opt for solar solutions. To know more about the viability of solar PV in Delhi across different consumer segments and the various business models that exist in solar, please download the report here:

http://www.bridgetoindia.com/rooftop-revolution-unleashing-delhi-s-solar-potential

What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below

The Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Co. Ltd. (MSEDCL) released a commercial circular no. 190 last month (dated March 14 2013), clarifying the matter of Cross Subsidy Surcharge (CSS) for Open Access (OA) consumers. Under this circular, all generators including renewable energy generators who opt for open access will have to pay MSEDCL the CSS.

Earlier, open access consumers that procure renewable energy had to pay only 25% of the applicable charges. This concession has now been removed

Project developers are obliged to go via the open access route in order to register for the REC mechanism

This hike in CSS will increase charges payable to the distribution licensee and introduce uncertainty in changes of CSS over the lifetime of the project

This order overturns the previous circular no. 155 (dated January 23 2013) that provided a concession to renewable energy consumers. Under the earlier commercial circular no. 155, open access consumers that procure renewable energy had to pay only 25% of the applicable charges. This concession has now been removed. The CSS for a typical 33 kV High Tension (HT) consumer now totals to INR 1.18/kWh. This is an increase of INR 0.57/kWh from the previous circular no. 155.

This latest announcement comes as a surprise to solar PV project developers. With the distributed energy generation market picking up, many developers are looking at the Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Mechanism as a potential additional off-take option. A project developer is obliged to go via the open access route in order to register the project under the REC mechanism. This announcement increases the charges payable to the distribution licensee (MSEDCL in this case) and introduces the uncertainty that the CSS can change over the lifetime of the project.

The revenues from the REC mechanism are already uncertain due to the lack of enforcement of Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs). The uncertainty over the open access charges will further weaken the possibility of off-take through the REC mechanism. This in turn would have two specific effects on the market:

The off-take of distributed generation of power will be slower than anticipated

Solar power prices for an end customer under private PPAs will be much higher due to the absence of REC revenue flows

Update:

Several developers have petitioned MERC against MSEDCL’s commercial circular no.190. MERC has stated that there will be a clarification on this issue in the second week of May.

This post is an excerpt from this week’s INDIA SOLAR WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE. Sign up to our mailing list to receive these updates every week.

You can view our archive of INDIA SOLAR WEEKLY MARKET UPDATES here.

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Last week in our April 2013 edition of the India Solar Compass we had mentioned that a number of projects under the Batch II, Phase I of the NSM had not been commissioned within the deadline of February 26th 2013. Since then, we have had a chance to interact with some company representatives and market stakeholders and would like to clarify that a few of these project have in fact been commissioned within the deadline.

Pokaran Solaire Energy, Sai Mathili Power Co and NVR Infra & Services were also commissioned before the February 26th deadline

For this update on Batch II, Phase I of the NSM, the list ‘Commissioning Status of Solar PV Projects under Batch-II, Phase-I of JNNSM’ was reffered to, published by the MNRE on its website on February 28th 2013

The above projects were excluded from the list, but were incorporated in a revised list released on March 26th without any information on commissioning dates

SolaireDirect, the developer and EPC for Pokaran Solaire Energy Pvt. Ltd has reached out to us and shared the project’s commissioning certificate. The project was commissioned on February 24th 2013, before the deadline.

Further, Refex Energy, the EPC for Sai Mathili Power Co. Pvt. Ltd. and NVR Infra. and Services Pvt. Ltd. has reached out to us and shared the projects’ commissioning certificates. The Sai Mathili Power Co. Pvt. Ltd. project was commissioned on the deadline of February 26th 2013 and the NVR Infra. and Services Pvt. Ltd. project was commissioned a day before the deadline on February 25th 2013. The commissioning of the NVR Infra. and Services Pvt. Ltd. project on February 25th 2013 has further been confirmed by the Atha Group.

In our report released last week, we provided an update on the status of commissioning of projects under Batch II, Phase I of the National Solar Mission (NSM). For our analysis, we referred to a list entitled ‘Commissioning Status of Solar PV Projects under Batch-II, Phase-I of JNNSM’ published by the MNRE on its website on February 28th 2013.The list gave commissioning dates, and contained projects that were commissioned up to February 22nd 2013.

Until the completion of the writing of our report on March 20th 2013, this was the only publically released, government backed information available on the projects commissioned under Batch II, Phase I of the NSM. The commissioning deadline for the projects under this batch was February 26th 2013. Based on the MNRE list of February 28th 2013, we concluded that the projects excluded from the list were not commissioned on time.

On March 26th 2013, the MNRE released another list on its website entitled ‘Commissioning Status of Solar PV Projects under Batch-II, Phase-I of JNNSM as on 26 March 2013′. In addition to the projects mentioned in the list of February 28th 2013, this list includes commissioned projects by Pokaran Solaire Energy Pvt. Ltd, Sai Mathili Power Co. Pvt. Ltd., NVR Infra. and Services Pvt. Ltd., LEPL Projects Ltd. Sunborne Energy Raj. Solar Pvt Ltd, Symphony Vyapar Pvt. Ltd., Lexicon Vanijiya Pvt. Ltd., Jackson Power Pvt. Ltd, Enfield Infra. Ltd., Essel MP Energy Ltd. and Saisudhir Energy Ltd. This list does not mention the commissioning dates of the projects.

As for the other projects excluded from the MNRE list of February 28th 2013 but listed as commissioned on the list of March 26th 2013, there is no clarity on their exact commissioning dates. We have reached out to the MNRE, the NVVN and the respective project developers via telephone and email but have not received a response yet. We will provide a further update on these projects when we have more information.

The India Solar Compass April 2013 edition has been updated accordingly (refer).

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We regularly publish reports on the Indian solar market. These are read by a majority of national and international market stakeholders: on average by 10,000 people, including most industry leaders. We realize and appreciate that our views and opinions are taken seriously and influence the market. That only reaffirms our commitment to ground them firmly in facts. Only: facts, are not always clear. This can lead to inaccuracies or errors in our writing – such as in our current INDIA SOLAR COMPASS (April 2013 Edition). We strive to always improve our coverage and analysis and get to the bottom of key market developments. In this endeavor, we invite all market participants to be in active touch and share information with us.

In a young, dynamic market, such as the Indian solar market, getting facts right is of particular importance – but also particularly challenging. A good case in point is project commissioning deadlines.

We strive to provide independent, analytical, transparent, business-driven and fair opinions to the market. This can be contrarian. We believe that asking questions and challenging assumptions helps the market grow.

We interact with all market participants and constantly receive information from the market. Some of which is off-the-record, which we don’t make public. Some is on record, wherein companies help us clarify certain topics.

In writing about the Indian solar market, we rely on primary information from market participants as much as on our own wits. Such information is sometimes difficult to gather and then to verify. The market has many grey zones, involving the complex management of infrastructure projects with multiple interests, significant investments and an imprecise regulatory environment.

Commissioning deadlines are a case in point: penalties for overstepping are high, commissioning is not always entirely within the control of the EPC or developer (who also depend on the cooperation of the authorities) and rules are not as clear as they should be.

In our current INDIA SOLAR COMPASS (April edition), we had originally written that a number of projects under NSM batch two/phase one did not meet the February 26th commissioning deadline. This information was based on a list published by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy on February 28th, which listed projects commissioned. We assumed that the projects not listed were not commissioned when we published the report on April 1st 2013. Some of the involved parties have reached out to us directly to clarify the matter and give us details to show that they have successfully met the commissioning deadline. In fact, in a list published by the MNRE and dated 26th of March, most projects are listed as commissioned. We have subsequently updated the passage in our report (refer) and will cover this topic in more detail in our upcoming publications.

There have been three direct take-aways for us from this incident. Firstly, we need to research even more thoroughly and involve the other stakeholders in the industry even more actively than we already do. Secondly, in a dynamic environment, we need the involved companies to also interact with us as has been done in this case. Thirdly, the process of ‘commissioning’ should be handled with more transparency and precision by the involved regulators. We have reached out to them and while having very helpful conversations, it is clear that they would also appreciate a better process. In batch one of phase one of the NSM, there already was a discrepancy between reported and actual commissioning dates for eight projects and NVVN had to review all projects to find these discrepancies (refer).

This incident made me think about why we do what we do. We believe that solar is (a) a useful technology for India, that (b) it can help India to develop, and that (c) it is a good business proposition for those who accept normal returns and take a long term-view. It can be a ‘good’ thing for people, for entrepreneurs and for the environment. I personally see solar more along the lines of a distributed ‘mobile phone’ revolution than of an infrastructure play. But it might not be either or and other paths can emerge. The verdict is out, the competition is on and many energetic market participants – many of them much smarter than myself – are developing new solutions even as I write this.

What I can say – speaking for myself and for my colleagues at BRIDGE TO INDIA – is that, if the solar market gets derailed into a quagmire of Indian infrastructure business-as-usual, we would rather not be a part of it. We believe that there is a link between quality (in our case: of analysis, but also: of products and processes) and transparency – and a sustainable market, and ultimately, progress for the country as a whole. Access to reliable and analytical information is a key driver for the market to prosper. It allows for the best allocation of resources and assessment of risks. It reduces costs (e.g. of lending, but also of making mistakes) and helps channel the efforts of numerous energetic, new market players – whether individual entrepreneurs or large corporates – towards the commercially viable, scalable solutions that are needed and within reach.

We want to see the market grow and prosper. We understand that it is young and dynamic and that India is a very diverse and complex market place. We believe that so far, things have gone quite well. India has rapidly built a strong base with an installed solar capacity now exceeding 1.4 GW. On the policy side, this has been achieved through a successful process of trial-and-error, wherein clarity was sacrificed for flexibility with the result that competition was kept high and costs low. In addition, a host of new solar business models outside the dedicated solar policies have been established. These focus on providing solar power solutions to energy-starved end-customers.

The market will continue to develop in exciting ways. In order to cover it, we interact closely with all stakeholders: with government and regulators, with consumers and with businesses, entrepreneurs and financiers. We find that most of them are very cooperative, ready to share information and exchange views. Many reach out to us for our off-the-record opinions on certain topics. And we, in turn, reach out to them. There is a growing group of stakeholders that understands the value of interaction, analysis and communication. There is an ‘Esprit de Corps’ of being co-pioneers in an electrifying market and a sense that we work for the same goals. We invite everyone to become a part of this community, to help us understand what makes solar work and what holds it back, so that we can be as accurate as possible in our market analyses and help build the market – in everyone’s interest.

Tobias Engelmeier is the Managing Director at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

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We have released our latest quarterly update from the 10th edition of the INDIA SOLAR COMPASS. The total installed capacity in India has now reached 1.41 GW.

Most off-grid projects that apply for capital subsidy from the MNRE in the new financial year will be put on hold until the end of the financial year (March 2014).

It is likely that developers in both Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will opt for construction/bridge financing to complete their projects on time.

As of January 2013, central inverters account for 95% of the installed capacity in the country.

Key updates from the last quarter (January – March 2013)

Policies

Due to the unavailability of unbundled power, the MNRE has decided to go ahead only with the allocations for 750MW based on Viability Gap Funding (VGF) for Phase 2 of the NSM.

It is likely that most off-grid projects that apply for capital subsidy from the MNRE in the new financial year will be put on hold until the end of the financial year (March 2014).

In Tamil Nadu, a capacity of 226 MW has been tied up for and the projects are expected to be commissioned by January 2013. The state has decided to provide a ‘workable tariff’ of INR 6.48/kWh (at an annual escalation of 5% for the first 10 years of the 20 year PPA).

Andhra Pradesh’s solar project tender was oversubscribed, with bids were received from 184 applicants who bid for a total capacity of 1,340 MW. The lowest bid (L1) in the whole of Andhra Pradesh was at INR 6.58 (EUR 0.10/USD 0.13) /kWh. At some substations the L1 is as high as INR 8.89 (EUR 0.14/USD 0.18)/kWh.

Kerala released a draft solar policy and has set itself a target of an installed capacity of 500 MW by 2017 and 1,500 MW by 2030. Unlike the off-grid capital subsidy scheme under the NSM, the state will incentivize distributed solar through Feed-in-Tariffs (FiTs).

Punjab has released a request for proposal (RfP) document for allocation of 300 MW of solar PV in the first phase of its state solar policy. The bid has been divided into two categories, 50 MW for new developers and 250 MW for experienced developers. The benchmark tariffs for the bidding process have been fixed at INR 8.75/kWh for companies not availing accelerated depreciation and INR 7.87/kWh for companies availing accelerated depreciation.

Uttar Pradesh has updated and finalized its solar policy and it is now called ‘Uttar Pradesh Solar Policy 2013′. The state has announced bidding for 200 MW of capacity on March 15th 2013.

Projects (PV)

In the last quarter (January to March 2013) 226.5 MW of solar PV capacity has been added in India.

Under batch two of phase one of the NSM, projects by developers such as Welspun, Mahindra, Kiran Energy, Azure, Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL), Saibaba Green Power, SunEdison have been completed and the remaining capacity from Green Infra and Fonroche Group has been commissioned.

For batch two projects, a significant delay has been reported in the projects being developed by Essel Infraprojects.

In Madhya Pradesh, Welspun’s 130MW project in Neemuch district of Madhya Pradesh has arranged for financing and has selected its equipment suppliers.

Projects allocated in Karnataka last year are nearing financial closure and are in discussions for vendor selection.

In the last quarter, there was accreditation of 57.25 MW of planned capacity based on the REC mechanism. The total proposed capacity of accredited projects now stands at 78.16 MW.

Giriraj Enterprises, a group company of the Malpani Group from Maharashtra has emerged as the largest player betting on the REC market in India. The company is accredited to set up 40.65 MW of REC based solar projects.

Financing

In the last quarter (January – March 2013), financial closures have been achieved for multiple projects in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.

It is likely that developers in both Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will opt for construction/bridge financing to complete their projects on time.

Many project developers are now looking at the third-party PPA market. Some PPAs have already emerged from this commercial parity driven market segment but it is not clear how the lenders will react to such projects.

Industry analysis

There are up to 18 prominent inverter suppliers that are present in the Indian market. However, just six companies, i.e., SMA, Bonfiglioli, Schneider, ABB, AEG and Power-One make up for 87% of the current inverter market share in India.

From these six companies, power solution companies such as AEG, ABB and Schneider are already manufacturing solar inverters in India.

As of January 2013, central inverters account for 95% of the installed capacity in the country.

Inverter suppliers such as ABB and Power-One plan to launch new central inverter models with the capacity of 1 MW and 1.4 MW respectively.

Currently, central inverter prices in India range between INR 4.2 (EUR 0.06/USD 0.08)/kWp (output) and INR 7.8 (EUR 0.11/USD 0.14)/kWp (output), depending on the type and brand of the inverter.

For a complete update on the last quarter, download the latest edition of our INDIA SOLAR COMPASS here.

What is the cost of burning India’s coal reserves? And should that cost be added to the equation when determining whether to switch to renewables? This is a preliminary thought-piece. The thought goes like this: fossil fuels are burned and gone. Renewables are – as the name suggests – unlimited. Could coal be used more sparingly for purposes other than generating electricity? Perhaps not now, but in the future?

Depleting a strategic resource like coal comes at a cost that might not be fully understood today

Renewables do not deplete a strategic resource

Is this a strong argument for accelerating the shift towards renewables?

Traditionally, when we compare renewables to fossil fuels in power generation, we look at the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Or, more simply: we look at the market tariff offered by power generators using different fuels. This measure is inclusive of a messy chain of direct and indirect subsidies and costs added through government policies and regulations. If you take this measure, coal is still India’s fuel of choice. Depending on where the coal comes from, it is brought to market at rates between 1.5 and 4 INR/kWh. Wind and hydro power, would be slightly more expensive. Solar – which is practically unlimited in resource – is currently sold at 7 to 8 INR/kWh, which 2 to 5 times more expensive than coal.

Comparisons between different fuels are complex. One has to look at running plants at optimal loads, at investment cycles, future fuel prices, at how the grid infrastructure is used, at the quality of power generated, etc. Also, one should include the externalities: the local environmental costs of mining, air pollution, building dams, and (perhaps) the global carbon cost. A full analysis would have to take these factors into account, but I would like to keep it simple here and just add one layer to the cost comparison: the fact that coal is limited and renewables are not. What does that mean in terms of cost and national strategy?

A study by the World Future Council (refer) has estimates the global ‘future usage loss’ of using oil, gas and coal for power generation at over 3.2 trillion USD/year. This is essentially the opportunity cost of not being able to use these resources for alternative, industrial purposes. Is this relevant for India? If the best use of coal in India is for power generation, i.e. if this is where coal currently creates most value, then so be it? The answer is probably ‘yes’, if one looks only at the market as determinant of (monetary) value. If however, coal is attributed a national, strategic value, the answer might be ‘no’.

What could this value be? Coal has certain properties that might be needed for very specific products and purposes. If it is burned and converted into electricity, these specific properties are lost. The end product, electricity, carries no DNA. Could it be better to use coal in ways that more fully leverage its properties? India might not yet have all the industries that need coal-based components, but as it industrialises, it increasingly will. These are some of the non-energy uses of coal as per the World Coal Association (refer): alumina refineries; paper manufacturers; a number of chemical products such as phenol or benzene; soaps, solvents, dyes, plastics and fibres sich as nylon. In addition activated carbon is used in water and air filters. Coal is used for silicon metal for various products such as lubricants, repellents or cosmetics. Most interestingly, coals is used for carbon fibre, a key meterials technlogy of the future with unique properties of light weight and strength. Should coal be given an industrial policy value?

In addition, there is a strategic resource management value. Compare coal to oil, which is much more scarce in India and more strongly embedded in our minds as a strategic resource. Firstly: domestic coal can provide India with a last resort energy security. It is locally available and can be extracted and burned at any time. India should have a strategic reserve in the same way that it has a strategic reserve of oil. Secondly: perhaps it might be better to sell the coal in future than to burn it? Coal prices have risen across the world. Saudi Arabia understood this for oil. It finds it more lucrative to develop renewables for its power needs and sell the oil thus saved to other countries at a high price (refer). As mentioned before, this is an open-thought process. I would appreciate feedback.

Tobias likes to write about solar business models, solar and energy policy and wider issues of sustainability, development and growth.

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India’s largest solar REC project of 33 MW was commissioned last week. The promoter of the plant is Giriraj Enterprises, which has diversified business interests. Sterling and Wilson was responsible for the EPC for the entire 33 MW and will also be responsible for the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) of the plant for the next five years.

The project estimates an average of 53,000 RECs per annum, which will boost the solar REC supply in the market

Unless demand is corrected, the future of the REC market looks grim due to non-enforcement of RPOs

Tamil Nadu seems to be set to launch its own state specific solar REC market, monitored and enforced by the state DISCOM – TANGEDCO

The project is registered under the REC registry as three separate projects of 11 MW, 19 MW and 3 MW. The project was accredited on March 5th 2013 and registered on March 21st 2013.

The project has entered into a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the local Distribution Company (DISCOM) in Rajasthan. The PPA is signed at the Average Pooled Purchase Cost of power paid by the DISCOM (the exact price is unknown). RECs will be availed over and above the PPA. The project estimates an average of 53,000 RECs per annum. This will boost the solar REC supply in the market. Solar RECs are currently trading close to the forbearing price of INR 13,400 per REC. This is in contrast to the non-solar REC market, which is trading at the floor price of INR 1,500 per REC. This difference is largely due to the constraint of supply of solar REC on the market (refer). The promoter plans additional solar REC projects in the coming financial year (exact capacity unknown). This will definitely ease supply issues and is likely to drive down REC trade prices.

The REC market still remains suspect due to the non-enforcement of the RPO on obligated entities. Although there have been a few announcements and notifications from the CERC with regards to enforcements, nothing concrete has manifested. Unless demand is corrected, the future of the REC market looks grim.

On the other hand, Tamil Nadu seems to be set to launch its own state specifc REC market that caters to the Solar Purchase Obligations (refer). The SPOs shall be monitored and enforced by the state DISCOM – TANGEDCO. Since all SPO obligated entities are connected to the grid via TANGEDCO, this gives TANGEDCO more leverage in monitoring and enforcing the SPO. It remains to be seen how the state specific RECs relate to the national RECs. Nevertheless, state specifc REC are likely to be more successful from an enforcement perspective when compared to the national REC market.

This post is an excerpt from this week’s INDIA SOLAR WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE. Sign up to our mailing list to receive these updates every week.

You can view our archive of INDIA SOLAR WEEKLY MARKET UPDATES here.

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